Verification of CSU WRF and NCEP model forecasts: 500-mb height (vs. raobs)

Verification statistics from previous full months: May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018

-- Forecasts are verified against radiosonde observations. For verification against the NAM analysis, click here.
-- BCRMSE = Bias-corrected root mean square error. Reflects the forecast errors not associated with the bias. Lower numbers are better.
-- RMSE = Root mean square error. Lower numbers are better.
-- Bias = Difference between the average forecast height and the average observed height. A value of zero reflects an unbiased forecast.
-- The second-from-bottom graph compares the area-averaged ensemble spread against the BCRMSE. In the long run, these should be approximately equal for a well-tuned ensemble. However, this is unlikely to be true for our very small WRF ensemble.
-- Verification is done on the outer (36-km) grid for the CSU WRF runs, shown on this page.
-- Scores are calculated using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools software package.