Locally Extreme Precipitation Forecasts
Welcome to the webpage for extreme precipitation forecasting with machine learning. This page contains real time CONUS-wide probabilistic forecasts for 1-year and 10-year return period exceedances. Currently, forecasts are broken into eight distinct regions, and forecasts are based solely on GEFS/R fields. Furthermore, only day two (F36-60) forecasts are available at this time, and only for 24-hour precipitation accumulations. More lead times and accumulation intervals will become available in the future. Complete methodology for these forecasts will be described in a forhcoming publication(s). Methodology is currently under development and subject to change.
PLEASE NOTE: Though historical forecasts have been validated and the methodology has been shown to produce skillful forecasts, detailed and thorough verification has not yet been conducted. Additionally, currently no smoothing is applied between forecasts generated for adjacent regions, resulting in unrealistic discontinuities in probabilities across region boundaries..
DISCLAIMER:These forecasts are provided for informational purposes only; the creator assumes no responsibility for the forecasts or actions of others derived therefrom. This disclaimer applies to all forecasts provided on this page or any other forecast product presented elsewhere on this website.
Please send any comments, feedback, or suggstions to: gherman at atmos dot colostate dot edu
Currently Supported Forecast Lead Times:
Hover mouse over an hour to see forecasts for forecasts for precipitation accumulations beginning at the given start time (in hours since initialization).3660