Verification of CSU WRF and NCEP model forecasts: 500-mb height (vs. raobs), Sep 2016
Switch to current verification statistics
-- Forecasts are verified against radiosonde observations. For verification against the NAM analysis, click here.
-- BCRMSE = Bias-corrected root mean square error. Reflects the forecast errors not associated with the bias. Lower numbers are better.
-- RMSE = Root mean square error. Lower numbers are better.
-- Bias = Difference between the average forecast height and the average observed height. A value of zero reflects an unbiased forecast.
-- The second-from-bottom graph compares the area-averaged ensemble spread against the BCRMSE. In the long run, these should be approximately equal for a well-tuned ensemble.
-- Verification is done on the outer (36-km) grid for the CSU WRF runs, shown on this page.
-- Scores are calculated using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools software package.
Bias-corrected root mean square error (BCRMSE) for 500-hPa height
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Root mean square error (RMSE) for 500-hPa height
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Bias for 500-hPa height
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BCRMSE for 500-hPa height by verification date
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Ensemble spread vs. BCRMSE
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Ensemble spread and BCRMSE for 500-hPa height by verification date
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