Locally Extreme Precipitation Forecasts
UNDER CONSTRUCTION!
These images depict point forecast probabilities for local exceedance of the N-year return period for the T-hour accumulation period, with N ranging from 1 to 100 and T = 6 or 24. The exceedance thresholds are determined by a combination of NOAA Atlas 14 (where available- most of US), Atlas 2 (WA, OR, ID, MT, WY), and Technical Paper 40 (New England and Texas) data. This forecast product is currently under development; anticipate changes and modifications in the coming months. Methods are being assessed using cross-validation over the period 06/09/2009-08/30/2014; verification for the current implementation of this forecast product can be found here: Forecast Verification. For 24-h accumulations, all forecasts shown are for the 1200 UTC--1200 UTC time period.
NEW! (experimental) For using this product toward decision support, try here: Decision Support
Please send any comments, feedback, or suggstions to: gherman at atmos dot colostate dot edu
Hover mouse over an hour to see forecasts for forecasts for precipitation accumulations beginning at the given start time (in hours since initialization).
12182430Hover mouse over an hour to see forecasts for that return period.
Current Configuration (4/16):
Models Used:
- GFS
- Full Operational GEFS (21 members)
- Full SREF (26 members)
- NAM
- NAM4km
- HIRESW ARW
- HIRESW NMB
- NSSL WRF
Supported Return Periods:
- 1
- 2
- 5
- 10
- 25
- 50
- 100
Supported Accumulation Intervals:
- 6
- 24
Supported Forecast Lead Times:
- 12 (6,24)
- 17 (6)
- 24 (6)
- 30 (6)
Forecasting Scheme: Neighborhood Democratic Voting (NDV), 20 grid box (~95km) radius
Historical Configuration (Prior to 1/16):
Models Used:
- NSSL WRF
- GEFS Control (Reforecast V2)
- GEFS Pert #1 (Reforecast V2)
Supported Return Periods:
- 2
Supported Accumulation Intervals:
- 24
Supported Forecast Lead Times:
- 12
