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Monitoring of heavy precipitation forecasts

These images show locations where the 100-year recurrence interval for 24-h precipitation is predicted to be exceeded by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and various convection-allowing numerical models. These forecasts will almost certainly have errors, but it can provide guidance as to where the models are predicting extreme rainfall. For 24-h accumulations, all forecasts shown are for the 1200 UTC--1200 UTC time period.

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Hover mouse over a model to see its forecast for this time

WPC NAM 3-km nest NSSL 4-km WRF NCEP HIRESW/ARW NCEP HIRESW/NMMB HRRR HRRRx

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Data sources and notes:
Gridded model forecast output obtained from NOAA/NCEP (for NAM nest and HiRes Window runs), from NOAA/ESRL (for the HRRR), and from NOAA/NSSL.
Gridded recurrence intervals come from the NOAA Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center and The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool. Where available, the NOAA Atlas 14 values are used, otherwise older recurrence interval information is used, and these are merged together onto a single map.
The model forecasts and recurrence interval grids are all re-gridded to the NOAA "HRAP" grid which has approximately 4.75-km horizontal grid spacing.

Acknowledgments:
This work was primarily supported by NOAA Award NA14OAR4320125, Amendment 26. This material is based upon work also supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Nos. AGS-0954908 and AGS-1157425. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.