Research: Widespread, multiple-day rainfall events and their predictability

Flooding can occur on multiple scales when heavy rains affect large areas over a long period of time. Several notable examples occurred in recent years: the summer floods in 2007 in the Southern Plains; the devastating floods in Minnesota and Wisconsin in August 2007; the summer 2008 Mississippi Valley floods; and several of the 2008 hurricanes. Along with Dr. Chris Davis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Dr. Schumacher analyzed the climatology of such widespread, multiple-day rainfall events, and examined the skill and uncertainty in ensemble forecasts of these events.

This work was recently published in Weather and Forecasting. Additionally, former graduate student Samantha Lynch published an analysis of the sensitivity of rainfall predictions in the May 2010 Nashville, Tennessee flood to different factors in a global ensemble.

Refereed publications on this subject

• Schumacher, R. S., and C. A. Davis, 2010: Ensemble-based forecast uncertainty analysis of diverse heavy rain events. Weather and Forecasting, 25,1103-1122.
• Schumacher, R.S., 2011: Ensemble-based analysis of factors leading to the development of a multi-day warm-season heavy rain event. Monthly Weather Review, 139, 3016-3035.
• Lynch, S.L., and R.S. Schumacher, 2014: Ensemble-based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 222-239.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. AGS-0954908. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.