Research: Refereed Publications

• Herman, G.R., 2018: Forecasting Severe Weather with Random Forests. Monthly Weather Review, accepted pending revisions.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher, 2018: Perplexing Problems with Flash Flood Verification: Pondering Precipitation Proxies Journal of Hydrometeorology, in press.

• Online Supplement

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher, 2018: "Dendrology" in Numerical Weather Prediction: What Random Forests and Logistic Regression Tell Us About Forecasting Extreme Precipitation. Monthly Weather Review, 146, 1785-1812.

Online Supplement

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher, 2018: Money Doesn't Grow on Trees, but Forecasts Do: Forecasting Extrme Precipitation with Random Forests. Monthly Weather Review, 146, 1571-1600.

• Herman, G.R., E.R. Nielsen, and R.S. Schumacher, 2018: Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks. Weather and Forecasting, 33, 161-184.

• Nielsen, E.R., G.R. Herman, R.C. Tournay, J.M. Peters, and R.S. Schumacher, 2016: Reply to Comments on 'Double Impact: When both tornadoes and flash floods threaten the same place at the same time'. Weather and Forecasting, 31, 1723-1727.

• Herman, G.R., and R.S. Schumacher, 2016: Extreme Precipitation in Models: An Evaluation. Weather and Forecasting, 31, 1853-1879.

• Herman, G.R., and R.S. Schumacher, 2016: Using Reforecasts to Improve Forecasting of Fog and Visibility for Aviation. Weather and Forecasting, 31, 467-482.

• Nielsen, E.R., G.R. Herman, R.C. Tournay, J.M. Peters, and R.S. Schumacher, 2015: Double Impact: When both tornadoes and flash floods threaten the same place at the same time. Weather and Forecasting, 30, 1673-1693.

Other Publications

• Herman, G.R., 2016: Model Post-Processing for the Extremes: Improving Forecasts of Locally Extreme Rainfall. MS Thesis, Colorado State University.

Recorded Presentations

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Improving Medium-Range Predictions of Locally Extreme Precipitation With Machine Learning; Research Applications Laboratory Seminar Series, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2018.

• Herman, G.R., E.R. Nielsen, and R.S. Schumacher: Thorough Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Forecasts; 98th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society, 2018.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Using Machine Learning to Predict Warm-Season Convection over Northeastern Colorado; 98th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society, 2018.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Advances in Using Random Forests to Forecast Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods; 98th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society, 2018.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Using Machine Learning to Predict Warm-Season Convection over Northeastern Colorado; 98th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society, 2018.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Creating High-Resolution Convection Forecasts over Northeast Colorado using Random Forests; 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, 2017.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Probabilistic Locally Extreme Precipitation Forecasts with Machine Learning; 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, 2017.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Advancing Probabilistic Forecasts of Locally Extreme Precipitation through Machine Learning; 97th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society, 2017.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Locally Extreme Precipitation in Models: Model Climatologies by Extreme Value Theory; 96th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society, 2016.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Improving Forecasts for Locally Extreme Rainfall: A Probabilistic Approach; 96th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society, 2016.

• Herman, G.R. and R.S. Schumacher: Generating Skillful and Reliable Probabilistic Forecasts for Locally Extreme Rainfall; 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, 2015.

Miscellaneous Papers and Presentations

• Herman, G.R., 2016: On the Richardson Number Dependence of Nonlinear Critical-Layer Flow over Localized Topography. ATS 735 Class Presentation, Colorado State University.

• Herman, G.R., 2016: Extreme Value Theory: An Introduction. ATS 655 Invited Presentation, Colorado State University.

• Herman, G.R., 2016: Using Reforecasts to Improve Forecasts of Fog and Visibility for Aviation. Invited Presentation, Vaisala.

• Herman, G.R., 2015: Chaos Theory, Edward Lorenz, and Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. ATS 780 Class Presentation, Colorado State University.

• Herman, G.R., 2014: Statistical Approaches to Hurricane Intensity Prediction: A Historical Overview of the SHIPS Model. ATS 710 Class Presentation, Colorado State University.