GEFS Verification: Forecast Issued 20240516

GEFS-based probabilistic excessive rainfall forecasts (left) with overlaid flash flood local storm reports (black squares), 2-year 6-hour ARI exceedences (blue circles), and 2-year 24-hour ARI exceedences (red circles). To the right is 24-hour accumulated rainfall (mm) from NCEP Stage IV analysis. Both products are valid for the same 12-12 UTC period.